By Sam Diaz | 3-minute read
It’s not enough to hope for a promising future – we also need to plan. As a land use planning watchdog organization, we’ve partnered with Institute for the Future (IFTF) to build on 50 years of research, organizing, and advocacy to strategize around four possible futures of Oregon. Based on extensive research, we present: growth, collapse, constraint, and transformation scenarios.
These four video shorts use IFTF’s foresight methods to explore how our action or inaction on important policy decisions can shape Oregon communities over the next decade. As we view these scenarios, we have an opportunity to ask ourselves how we can collectively prepare for each one and what actions we can take now to create a future where both people and ecosystems thrive, despite increasing pressures on our land and communities.
“Land use decisions are a powerful lever for shaping the future,” says Rachel Hatch, chief operating officer of IFTF. “These scenarios demonstrate how foresight tools can help communities imagine and design a more equitable and sustainable future – one that works for both people and the environment.”
While the future is uncertain, we have a blueprint from Senate Bill 100 (and SB 101) and lessons from our more than 50 years of land use advocacy to guide us. For decades, Oregon has been a national leader in land use planning, limiting urban sprawl, incentivizing sustainable industry and needed housing, and protecting farmlands, forests, and open spaces. Changes – whether in technology, governance, the nature of work, or our environment – bring up questions familiar for land use advocates:
- How do we shape communities to achieve a high quality of life for all Oregonians, no matter what part of the state they live in?
- What are the forces – current and future – that will likely shape the experiences of Oregonians?
- How might emerging technologies reshape transportation and land use patterns?
- What economic forces may shape Oregon’s future development?
- How will the effects of climate change – like extreme heat, drought, wildfires, and sea-level rise – reshape Oregon’s natural and built environments by 2035?
- What will the regulatory environment look like in Oregon in 2040, and how will shifts in governance influence the policy landscape? How can statewide planning efforts balance urban and rural interests?
We believe collaboration is part of the solution to such challenges, and this project invites all Oregonians to take part in our strategic vision. These video scenarios are designed to inspire collaborative, strategic conversations that address Oregon’s difficult and overlapping challenges and opportunities.
The videos explore four possible futures for 2035:
- Insatiable (growth scenario): A future driven by the desire for continued economic growth, even at the expense of equality and sustainability;
- Scratch (collapse scenario): A future ravaged by climate crises, economic disparities, and the breakdown of core systems;
- Pruning (constraint scenario): A future driven by difficult choices and the acceptance of fewer individual freedoms for the benefit of all; and
- Liminal (transformation scenario): A future accelerated by technological breakthroughs and a redefinition of reality.
Forecasting different futures helps us imagine the range of possibilities and obstacles we may need to plan for, and it offers the chance to think critically about the consequences of our choices today. None of these futures will come to pass exactly as they are depicted. None of them are predictions or preferences by 1000 Friends of Oregon or by Institute for the Future. However, the seeds of all of these possibilities and more exist in the present.
You can learn more about the development behind these scenarios in our Horizon Scan. We hope you’ll join us to bring your questions, ideas, and knowledge to help create a future we’re excited to live in and proud to build with and pass on to the next generation.